According to the latest reports from foreign media, the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing (AASM) recently submitted an application to the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) and the Department of Commerce (DOC), requesting an anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigation against Chinese photovoltaic companies from Indonesia and Laos and local photovoltaic companies in India.
This move is seen as the latest counterattack by the US photovoltaic industry against global supply chain adjustments, which may further exacerbate international trade tensions.
Trade war escalates
From the four Southeast Asian countries to emerging suppliers
In 2024, the United States launched a "double-reverse" investigation on solar cells and modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, and eventually imposed high tariffs on silicon solar cells from the above countries (regardless of whether they are assembled into modules). Among them, Cambodian products were subject to a maximum anti-subsidy tax of 3403.96%. This move forced Chinese photovoltaic companies to accelerate the transfer of production capacity to Indonesia, Laos and other countries that were not covered. According to statistics, Indonesia's current solar module production capacity has exceeded 25GW, and there are more than 20GW to be built, of which Chinese companies account for a significant proportion; although Laos has a relatively small production capacity, its import volume is growing rapidly.
However, the capacity transfer failed to quell the dispute. AASM accused Chinese companies in Laos and Indonesia, as well as Indian companies, of lowering prices through "dumping" and "subsidies", posing a threat to US domestic manufacturers. The petition showed that the dumping margin of Indonesian products reached 89.65%, the highest in Laos was 249.09%, and that of Indian companies was 213.96%. The US Department of Commerce will investigate whether there is unfair pricing or government subsidies for imported products from the three countries, and the ITC will need to determine whether substantial damage has been caused to the domestic industry.
Why is India involved?
Capacity expansion becomes the fuse
It is worth noting that India was included in the scope of the US PV trade investigation for the first time. Data shows that although India's module imports are relatively stable, its battery exports to the US have increased significantly. The Indian government report pointed out that the country's total PV cell and module production capacity has quadrupled in one year, and many companies have recently announced plans to increase production capacity. For example, Adani Green Energy, India's largest PV manufacturer, plans to invest $5 billion in the next five years to expand production capacity, aiming to become one of the top three vertically integrated companies in the world.
Tim Brightbill, chief attorney of AASM, said bluntly: "Indian manufacturers are expanding faster than expected. They are impacting the U.S. market with low prices, which is exactly the same strategy as Chinese companies." Analysts believe that the United States' inclusion of India in the scope of the investigation is not only a direct response to its surge in production capacity, but also reflects the United States' ambition to reconstruct the global photovoltaic supply chain - forcing allied countries to strengthen local manufacturing and reduce dependence on China's supply chain through trade barriers.
History repeating itself?
The United States may impose "sky-high tariffs" again
The investigation procedure is highly similar to the cases of the four Southeast Asian countries. If both the ITC and the Ministry of Commerce make affirmative decisions, the United States will impose additional tariffs on the products involved, and the tax rate may refer to the previous standards. Taking the four Southeast Asian countries as an example, the final ruling resulted in Cambodia's photovoltaic products facing a comprehensive tax rate of up to 3521%, and the tax rates of Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam also exceeded 200%, which directly caused the United States' imports from the above countries to plummet by more than 90%.
Industry experts warn that if Indonesia, Laos and India are hit with similar tariffs, the global photovoltaic supply chain will face a new round of reshuffle. Zhang Sen, secretary general of the Photovoltaic Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, said: "The United States frequently launches trade investigations, which is essentially to protect its backward domestic production capacity through non-technical means. This move will push up the cost of photovoltaic installation in the United States and delay its energy transformation process." According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, if the United States imposes tariffs on the three countries, the average cost of photovoltaic projects in the United States will rise by 15%-20% in 2025, resulting in the postponement or cancellation of about 10GW of projects.
Global response
Trade protectionism has been criticized by many parties
The US move has attracted widespread attention from the international community. Bahlil Lahadalia, chairman of the Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board, responded that Indonesia's photovoltaic industry follows international rules, the US investigation lacks factual basis, and "protectionism will only harm global climate cooperation." The Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy said it will assess the impact of the investigation on India's photovoltaic exports and consider responding to unfair trade measures through the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
At the same time, there are also differences in the United States. Some clean energy advocacy organizations criticized the government for "killing the development of renewable energy with tariffs" and called for improving competitiveness through investment in local manufacturing and technological innovation. However, interest groups such as AASM insisted that "strict enforcement of trade laws is a necessary means to maintain market fairness."
According to the process, the ITC will make a preliminary damage ruling in mid-January 2025, and the Ministry of Commerce is expected to initiate preliminary anti-dumping and countervailing duty rate rulings in February. If the investigation continues, the final ruling may be announced in the second half of 2025. During this period, Chinese, Indian and Indonesian companies may accelerate their layout in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America to diversify trade risks.
Behind this trade dispute is the profound transformation of the global photovoltaic industry from "efficiency first" to "safety first". When climate goals encounter geopolitical games, how to balance industrial protection and open cooperation will become a long-term challenge for policymakers in various countries.
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